Predicting the unpredictable

Every year around this time, the experts predict the severity of the next hurricane season. This information usually garners a lot of press, especially after this year’s record hurricane season (which we in Houston know all too well).

While we don’t discount William Gray's credentials on hurricanes (even though he is based out of Colorado), we wonder if so much attention should be paid to these predictions. Last year, Gray predicted 11 named storms in the Atlantic, three of which to become major hurricanes. Instead, we were blessed with 26 named storms, seven being severe. You’d lose your shirt in Vegas on that kind of bet.

For 2006, Gray is predicting 17 named storms. The hurricane season will still be very busy, but not as bad as this year. Well, that's about as useful as predicting the Texans will have a better season next year ... it can't get much worse.