Could It Be a Quiet July in the Tropics?

We at Houstonist already have our bottled water, plywood, cat carriers and extra gasoline just in case a hurricane evacuation is necessary this summer. We don't want to get caught in another hurricane-induced melee again this year, but that shouldn't be a problem — at least in July.

Dr. Jeff Masters, one of the most well-respected tropics forecasters on the net, has given us all hope with a better-than-expected forecast for the month of June.

According to Masters, sea temperatures are cooler than last July thanks to much greater levels of high pressure across the Atlantic and a dip in the jet stream that has brought all the cool, rainy weather to the northeastern part of the states.

This combination, he believes, will limit us to only a couple of named storms and maybe one hurricane in July of only the smaller variety. And, because of the location of the jet stream, we along the Gulf Coast should remain storm-free in July if all continues as forecast. In contrast, last July saw five named storms including three hurricanes, two of which were major storms. That, of course, was only the beginning to a record year for the tropics in 2005.

Unfortunately, forecasting high pressure systems and the location of the jet stream is tricky beyond a few weeks and a quiet July may be no indication of what is to come in August and September. In fact, the busiest part of the hurricane season is between mid-August and mid-September, so don't drink all your water and turn your plywood into a treehouse just yet. But, it appears that, for now, we can relax with a tropical-storm-free Fourth of July.

Photo: flickr user cgt