Houstonist Weather Watch

If you've lived in Texas for long, you've likely heard the saying, "If you don't like the weather, wait." At Houstonist, we believe in keeping track of the weather both to be prepared for the occasional onslaught of rain, hurricanes and flooding, but also because we know that a blue norther in certain months of the year is just as likely as a 90-degree day and we want to dress accordingly.

With that in mind, we give you the Houston weekly weather watch. We don't promise to be the next Doug Johnson or make predictions on when to take an umbrella and when to take a sweater, but we hope to give you a little info about weather in our fair city for the week ahead.

Monday Through Thursday

Summertime and the living is...muggy. Our typical Houston summer weather patterns should prevail on Monday and Thursday with a 30-40 percent chance of rain and highs in the low 90's. Tuesday and Wednesday will give us our best chance of rain as a weak tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico meanders this way. A weak low pressure system associated with a stationary front will continue to keep moisture in the air in the afternoons all week keeping humidity high and giving us a chance for afternoon showers every day.

End of the Week and Weekend

Dryer air begins to move in by Friday and our weekend looks sunny and hot with highs in the mid to upper 90's. There is still a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm with the summer heating and moist air off the Gulf, but chances diminish into Saturday and Sunday.

Tropical Update

As mentioned above, there is a weak tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that is forecast to move north over southern Texas and provide some rainfall. The system bears watching and the National Hurricane Center is continuing to keep an eye on it.

Fortunately, wind shear in the Gulf is expected to remain high for at least another week and not fall below the 15 knot threshold that allows for the formation of tropical storms. While it is possible this disturbance could become a depression before making landfall, that is not expected. As always, keep an eye on the tropics this time of year no matter what is out there.

As for the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, all is quiet at the moment. We've only had two names storms so far this year and if we make it until the end of the month, which appears likely at this point, we could be six named storms behind 2005, which saw eight storms by early August including five hurricanes, all of which were in the Gulf of Mexico. What a difference a year makes.

There is a large amount of African dust covering much of the Atlantic basin and Caribbean prohibiting tropical storm formation and wind shear remains high throughout the region. In addition, water temperatures remain slightly cooler than last year at this time. August through mid-September is the busy season for hurricanes, however, so remember to stay prepared and keep watch on the tropics throughout the hurricane season.

Stay dry and have a great week!