Houstonist Weather Watch

Welcome to August! Not only do the temperatures sore in the Bayou City, August is the peak of hurricane season. Up until now, we've been fortunate to avoid any significant tropical disturbances, but so has the entire US coastline. With only three named storms and no hurricanes, we are well behind the abnormally high 2005 season that, by this time last year, had already produced 7 named storms and 3 hurricanes including 2 major storms. More on the tropics below as we have our third named storm of the year churning in the Atlantic.

Monday Through Thursday

But, first up, we take a look at weather in and around Houston. As you might expect for this time of year, it is hot and it will stay that way. In typical Houston summer fashion, we'll see highs in the low 90's all week and a 20-30 percent chance of afternoon thunderstorms as warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico hits the afternoon heating. Fortunately, we haven't begun to reach the mid to high 90-degree weather we typically see for at least a week or two. The pattern of the jet stream this year has left us a little milder while folks in out west and in the northeast have had record high temps.

End of the Week and Weekend

For the moment, the tropics should not be an issue, but they do bear watching as we enter the height of the hurricane season. Barring any major changes, our normal summertime patterns should prevail with highs in the low 90's and a 20-30 percent chance of rain through the weekend.

Tropical Update

Just when you thought it was safe to go back to the Lesser Antilles, we get Tropical Storm Chris. Unlike 2005, the Atlantic has been mostly quiet this year as has the Gulf. High wind shear, slightly cooler water temperatures and a significant amount of African dust drifting across the Atlantic Ocean have helped to keep storms in check. Of course, we know from last week's rainfall that it doesn't take a category four hurricane to create some serious rainfall and flooding, but hurricanes are infinitely scarier.

The latest on Chris puts him to the east of the Leeward Islands moving to the west northwest. Chris is unique in that he has formed in rather adverse conditions with wind shear only marginal for development and a lot of dry air around him. There is a chance he could strengthen as he moves further west and north, but a majority of the current forecast models dissipate him within 5 days due to shear and dry air.

The one concern we should have along the Gulf Coast is that there are pockets of very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico similar to last year. Those same pockets of warm water and a warm water eddy that formed then (and is re-forming this season) caused the massive and speedy intensification of Katrina and Rita. The good news is that Dr. Jeff Masters in part one and part two of his August hurricane predictions believes the Gulf Coast has a lower-than-average chance of a storm in August compared to the East Coast of the US. Masters is predicting 4-5 named storms in August with 2 of them becoming hurricanes and 1 becoming an "intense" or major hurricane.

Stay tuned to the forecast of Dr. Bill Gray of the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project as his yearly predictions come out on August 3.

Stay cool this week!