Tropical Storm Chris Bears Watching

While Houstonist believes in preparedness and Tropical Storm Chris continues to churn in the Atlantic, it isn't time to start boarding up just yet.

That having been said, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Chris and has yet to downgrade him to a tropical depression as had earlier been predicted. Chris continues to survive depsite many estimations and is aiming directly for Cuba with winds currently around 40mph.

Current forecast models keep Chris on a westerly to slightly–north-of-west heading for the next several days and move him into the Gulf of Mexico as a tropical depression. While tracking models seem to be in fairly good agreement on his continued movement west towards the Texas/Mexico border with a projected landfall likely late on Wednesday, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to how strong Chris will get.

Forecasting for hurricanes has become remarkably accurate over the past 10 years in terms of direction, but strength forecasting is still questionable. As a result, it is important for residents all along the Texas coast including Houston and Galveston residents to keep an eye on Chris as he heads our way. Even with a less than 10 percent chance Chris will become a hurricane by Tuesday, rapid intensification is not unprecedented. A look back to Rita and Katrina last year is enough evidence.

In a bit of good news on the tropical front, the Colorado State University headed by Dr. Jim Gray revised its earlier Atlantic tropical outlook downward today from an estimated 17 named storms to 15 with 7 hurricanes (down from 9) and 3 intense storms (down from 5). The group also believes our chances for a Katrina-like mega storm this year are remote and that the Gulf Coast has a below-average chance of a hurricane strike while the east coast of the US has a higher percentage chance.

Their next forecast is scheduled for the first of September.

So, while you may not want to throw out the 4 cases of bottled water you have set aside, you probably don't need to board up the house yet either.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user seanabrady.