Houstonist Weather Watch

People who say, "Don't sweat the small stuff" have never been to Houston in August. Like a typical Houston later summer (yes, we said late summer), the mercury is rising and we all have an eye on the tropics. Fortunately, all is quiet in the tropics, but we are seeing some wet weather coutesy of a small tropical system. Mostly, it's going to be hot this week.

Monday Through Thursday

The early part of the week is going to be hot, sticky and damp. I know that sounds really disgusting, but it's basically true. A small tropical system that formed from a low pressure system over the northern Gulf of Mexico has been bringing warm, moist air off of the Gulf and giving us rain. That pattern will continue through the first part of Tuesday. Skies will part and give way to warm, humid weather - in other words, typical Houston August.

End of the Week and Weekend

The weekend looks to be nice, if you like hot weather. The norm consisting of highs in the low 90's and the daily 30 percent chance of rain holds for both Saturday and Sunday. So, if you want to get outside in the heat and get some sun, the weekend should provide you ample opportunity.

Tropical Update

Well, some good news this time of year is always welcome. We have entered the most volatile period of the hurricane season and it will stretch until the last week of September. We'll still be at risk through the end of November, but our chances drop off at a fever pitch as we near October.

Tropical Storm Chris fizzled out near Cuba and didn't have enough strength to re-form thankfully as its remanants drifted into the Gulf. Dry air just ripped the storm apart. We still have yet to see our first hurricane of the season and have only had three named storms thus far. We are well off the 2005 pace. By this time last year, we had already had nine named storms and four hurricanes, two of which were major storms.

Dr. Bill Gray's group at Colorado State University came out with their August revisions to the 2006 tropical outlook and downgraded this season by a couple of storms. They also conclude that the Gulf stands a below-average chance of seeing a hurricane this year, while the east coast of the US has a higher-than-average chance. They also believe that the chances of a very large hurricane like Katrina or Rita are very small this season.

All good news, indeed, but the tropics still bear watching. It was between mid August and mid September of last year that we saw both Katrina and Rita spin up in the Gulf and the warm water conditions spawned by the loop current in the Gulf are back this summer. We aren't out of the woods yet.

The only weather of note currently in the tropics is a tropical wave well out into the Atlantic Ocean east of the Leeward Islands. It is moving westward at around 10 mph. Most forecast models dissipate the wave before it reaches tropical storm status, but a couple of models develop it into a hurricane before dissipating it once it moves northwest into an area of dry air.

As always, stay prepared and keep an eye on the weather. Have a great week!