Hurricane Season Heating Up

A strong tropical depression (#4 this year) has formed off the coast of Africa and with it comes the heart of hurricane season. Though hurricane season runs offically from June 1 through the end of November, experts know that the busy season for hurricanes is August 15 through October 15 when waters reach their warmest temperatures and trade winds diminish leaving the atmosphere ripe for the formation of tropical weather disturbances.

This current depression is forecast by most models to reach or get very near hurricane strength in about four days. The good news is that this storm appears to be a "fish storm" in that it will likely only impact open seas as it tracks to the west and, eventually, northwest.

There is some concern at the National Hurricane Center that the forecast models have not been terribly accurate this season thus far and a more westerly track could be possible. But, the GFDL has been fairly accurate in both direction and intensity. It sits with the model consensus on this storm taking it out into open waters and ultimately dissipating the storm in the central Atlantic Ocean.

Additional forecast models are predicting several tropical storms within the next week or two with most of them recurving out into the ocean due to a weakness in the Bermuda High that dramatically effects track of storms in the Atlantic Basin.

Houstonist prefers "fish storms" because the fish know to get out of the way and ocean liners simply avoid the area. Storms out in the middle of the ocean make for pretty satellite images and interesting study for storm geeks while doing no damage to inhabitants of coastal areas.

Having said that, this storm season is ramping up and it's time to keep a close watch on the tropics.

Photo courtesy of Flickr user yalper.