Houstonist Weather Watch

There is a saying in Texas: if you don't like the weather, wait. Since some very hot typically summer weather a couple weeks back, we've gradually seen the high and low temperatures drop including our first glimpse at the 60's (no, not those 60's) and the most subtle hint of the fall weather ultimately on the way. But, what about this week?

Monday Through Thursday

We have a weak cold front moving our direction and responsible for our mostly wet weather the past couple of days. It will push through early in the week and give us slightly cooler temps by Thursday along with a good dose of wet weather Monday and Tuesday. Reports are 50 percent chances of rain Monday and Tuesday followed by a couple of very nice days in the middle of the week with lows down into the 60's.

End of the Week and Weekend

More rain is forecast for the end of the week and into Saturday. The temperatures will also creep back up towards 90 by Saturday and Sunday with likely pretty muggy weather.

Tropical Update

Hurricane Florence, the second Atlantic hurricane of the season, is in the Atlantic and has Bermuda squarely in her crosshairs. The storm is expected to reach category 2 status before brushing Bermuda and eventually recurving into the northern Atlantic.

There is another disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean to the southeast of Florence, but it is expected to recurve into the open ocean and probably won't even make hurricane status. Another tropical wave is forecast to form off the coast of Africa this week, but it is also likely to be a "fish" storm effecting only the open ocean.

As we continue through the busiest portion of hurricane season, it is worth noting that 2006 is obviously not close to either 2004 or 2005 in numbers of storms or, most importantly, storm intensity. Last year saw a record 28 named storms including 15 hurricanes, 7 of which were major. The season before in 2004 was far above average with 16 named storms including 9 hurricanes, 6 of which were major.

The 2004 season amassed over 3,000 deaths and an estimated $42 billion in damage. As if to not be outdone, 2005 recorded over 2,200 deaths and a record $100 billion plus in damage. This year was no 2004 or 2005. We can thank our friend Mr. Wind Shear and a large amount of dry African air over the Atlantic for the quieter 2006 season.

While the season runs through November 30, many forecasters believe the occurrance of what they believe to be a weak El Nino effect in the Pacific Ocean will likely cut short the 2006 season and, we can only hope, greatly reduce the 2007 hurricane season before it even starts. Years that follow the occurrance of an El Nino event see dramatically reduced hurricane numbers due to very high shear that often exists over the Atlantic basin.

If that wasn't enough good news for we Houstonians, we can be happy that, after September 21, only 4 hurricanes have made landfall along the Texas coastline in the entire recorded history of tropical storms dating back to the mid 1800's. Of the four hurricanes that struck the Texas coast between September 21 and the end of November, only one (Rita - you remember her, right?) was a major hurricane.

The bottom line is fall is on the way and that means an end to hurricane season, but it isn't over yet and Houstonist encourages you to hang onto those cases of bottled water, cat carriers and plywood for a little while longer. When the seaon officially closes, throw a plywood and water party and invite your friends. Who knows what fun may come of that?