Hurricane season's winding down — isn't it?

Houstonist doesn't want to jinx anything, but have you noticed that it's now late September and we haven't been threatened by a hurricane yet? According to the Chronicle, that means we could be out of the woods — but if we've learned one thing from living in Texas, it's never to assume anything about the weather.

The reason to breathe easier is that, historically, very few hurricanes have hit the Texas coast after this time of year (even though hurricane season doesn't officially end for another 10 weeks). Since good record-keeping began in 1867, four hurricanes have been reported as making landfall in Texas after Sept. 24; the most recent, Hurricane Jerry, was a rather puny storm that hit Oct. 16, 1989. There are a couple of main reasons for that: First, the Bermuda High, a high-pressure center in the Atlantic, tends to weaken toward the end of hurricane season, meaning more storms will head north before hitting the U.S.; and second, cold fronts begin sweeping down to the Gulf of Mexico by late September, tending to push storms away. "It's not impossible for Texas to be hit by a hurricane after September, but it all comes down to the timing of the passage of autumn cold fronts," ImpactWeather meteorologist Chris Hebert told the Chron.

All of which is promising, all things considered, but that doesn't mean you should put the bottled water and duct tape away just yet:

"I am not sure, with as strange as the weather patterns have been over the past several years, and the emotions of the public, that that would be a good term to use," said Jill Hasling, president of Houston's nonprofit Weather Research Center.

"The waters in the Gulf are still warm, so I am not sure if I would sound the all-clear yet."

The last major storm to hit Texas late came ashore at Freeport on Oct. 4, 1949, packing 90 mph winds in Houston. Let's keep our fingers crossed that history doesn't repeat itself.