New population estimate = new council districts?

One of the big topics around Houston last year — among people who care about such things, anyway — was that the flood of hurricane evacuees who came here in late 2005 would push the city's population over 2.1 million, which would trigger a provision in the city charter calling for the addition of two City Council districts. Officials were waiting on the results of a Census Bureau estimate released during the summer before they started redrawing council districts — but that estimate placed the city's population around 1.94 million, pretty well short of the 2.1 million threshold. Houston leaders challenged the number and got it raised to 2.07 million; though they felt that estimate was still low, Mayor Bill White said nothing would be done based on estimates. "We will act in good faith and compliance with the charter, but you have no official number showing population over 2.1 million," he told the Chronicle in August. "I can't pull a number out of the air."

Given that, the Chron's City Hall blog wonders today what we should make of the city's latest self-estimate, which claims there are 2,231,335 Houstonians (here's the memo to the mayor describing where that number came from). As the Chronicle's Matt Stiles notes, the city charter says that the decision to create the two new districts "shall be based upon the best available data, including, but not limited to, the most recent federal census," which means the new city estimate could trigger the redistricting. But the question remains whether White will give any more weight to that estimate — after all, it's still an estimate — than he did to the numbers from the Census Bureau.

The switch from 14 to 16 City Council districts would mean that each councilmember would represent fewer constituents and a smaller geographic area, which would theoretically give residents more of a say in who they elect and how their councilmembers vote. But the redistricting process could also be messy if people believe it's being done along racial or partisan lines (what are the chances of that?). There's also the question of how many people live where: The city's estimate is based on housing occupancy, but it might not be as detailed as data collected during the regular census, which could make drawing new districts difficult and open the process to legal challenges.