Sizing Up The Market For Roy Oswalt

Now that all the appropriate (or inappropriate) public and private gestures have been made, it’s clear that the Astros and Roy Oswalt have decided to start seeing other people. An ace pitcher of Oswalt’s caliber doesn’t often make it to the trade market, so what should Ed Wade be looking for, and who has something to offer?

 First, as for what kind of players should be targeted, let’s take a quick look through the Astros’ minor league system to see where there are holes. The most obvious hole is not a position, but a level; the lower leagues (AA and lower) are pretty well stocked with talented players drafted under Bobby Heck’s tenure as scouting guru, but the upper levels, usually home to players most likely to make an immediate impact at the major-league level, are bare. Apart from catcher Jason Castro and outfielder Brian Bogusevic, triple-A Round Rock is a boneyard of has-beens and never-will-be’s. Any talent that another team has at this level would be appreciated.

Beyond level of development, Wade should also target some talented project players, particularly on the right side of the infield. With the Kaz Matsui experiment over, and Lance Berkman’s playing days (whether in an Astros uni or not) drawing to a close, first and second base are high priorities. You can never have enough pitching, and despite the loads of promise offered by Chia-Jen Lo and Jordan Lyles at AA, the more the merrier. The outfield appears to be set for the near future with Pence and Bourn as the anchors (another corner outfielder is a lower priority, since they pretty much grow on trees), and the right side of the infield is looking better with Chris Johnson and first-round draft pick Jio Meir waiting in the wings.

Now that we know what to look for, we need to decide whose pantry to raid. Oswalt has stated that his intent in asking for a trade is so that he can have a shot at the World Series with a contender. That’s a pretty short list at this point: Cardinals, Phillies, Yankees, Rays. If the playoffs started today, those are probably your league championship series matchups. Everyone else is one or more pieces away from contending with the big boys.

Oswalt has also previously indicated that he’d like to pitch closer to his Mississippi home in Atlanta. Recently, the LA Angels and Washington Nationals have also been mentioned in the press as being interesting in bidding for Oswalt, but neither seem particularly likely: the Angels because they’re still second bananas to their AL East counterparts, forever destined for a first-round playoff exit, and the Nationals, despite the recent buzz about rookie hurler Stephen Strausberg, are still a year or more away from the playoffs.

Getting back to the real contenders, all have deep rotations and (with the exception of the Cards) well-stocked farm systems. Ed Wade is an ex-Phillie guy, and team president Tal Smith still has close ties to Rays GM Gerry Hunsicker. The last time that Wade traded an ace (Curt Shilling), he got back four eventual major leaguers (Omar Daal, Nelson Figueroa, Travis Lee, and Vicente Padilla). So here’s your scenario: Oswalt to Yankees for OF Chad Huffman (currently at AAA), 2B David Adams (currently at AA), and pitcher Adam Warren (currently at A+).

Now let there be no mistake: I hate the Yankees. I hate their fans. I hate their domination of the national sports media. And I hate the idea of Oswalt pitching for them. But they’re the trade partner who makes the most sense, and I’m tired of Oswalt’s me-first attitude. I hope you like pinstripes and getting beaten by the Rays in the ALCS, jackass.

photo: flickr user sulla55